Dean and I disagree fundamentally on this, but neither of us needs to resort to playschool insults.

Toodle pip.

Russell

Dean and I disagree fundamentally on this, but neither of us needs to resort to playschool insults.

Toodle pip.

Russell

Dean and I disagree fundamentally on this, but neither of us needs to resort to playschool insults.

Toodle pip.

Russell

so yes, heavy lifting on the laptop, but constant checking of email, sport scores, feeds, etc, on my mobile

If you're just counting computing devices connected to networks, I'd expect RFID tags or sensors to outnumber Nokia devices. But that doesn't mean that they're the “global computing monopoly” either.

First things first, there are no mobile servers so that part of global computing is totally outside Nokia's scope (yes, you can you run a small web server on a device, but not a carrier / corporate grade transaction-processing platform).

Secondly, the population of PCs (around 1.3bn I think) will probably rise to c2 billion as they're getting cheaper, especially in markets like India & China. But they tend to have >1 user each (in homes, schools, workplaces), so there should be almost as many PC users as mobile handset users (maybe 70-80% I'd guess)

Thirdly, mobile devices are totally unsuited for mainstream enterprise computing. You won't see too many CFOs scrutinising their company accounts on a phone. Or running SAP, or a call centre, or monitoring oil pipeline flows or the other million business applications.

Fourthly, emerging-world governments want populations to be PC-literate so that they have a chance to develop local software industries. Do any developers actually write code on phones? (meaningfully, not just a few to prove that it's theoretically possible).

Lastly, this myth that mobile devices “become the dominant digital/web access device globally ” is just that, a myth. Sure, there will be a few stats on “# of people who have ever used a browser, on anything, ever”. But in terms of traffic, value, viewed pixels, time spent online, business conducted or other useful metrics, this is a spurious but self-sustaining assertion. I've done the numbers:
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2008/01/...

It's still a very small % of users (especially in prepay-centric emerging markets) who use their phones for much beyond voice & SMS. Some of the “mobile Internet” stats are misleading and include closed WAP portals, general GPRS use, SMS-based info services and the like. They're no more “Internet” applications than a bank ATM machine. Interactive comms services, sure. The Internet? No.

Dean

Yes there may other brands, and providers, but if a company has such a large share over a market, say as Microsoft does with the computing industry; they then have this power that makes it harder for competition. That then limits choice, and then it's like a consumer dictatorship.

Well, that's my understanding of it anyways.

Samantha.

<rant>

There are soooooooooo many reasons why this statement is utter, patent bollocks.

The mobile will NEVER be the 'dominant' web access device. Numbers don't mean dominance, otherwise ants would rule the world. Web content/experiences will continue to evolve, pushing the boundaries of the devices constantly. Mobile will ALWAYS lag desktops, because of the difficulties of power storage, management, display size, speed of connection, latency, etc etc. You canna'e change the laws of pyhsics cap'n.

PC's are getting much cheaper/faster/bigger screens, at a rate much faster than mass-market mobiles are getting longer battery life/faster backhaul. Evidence: i3G. Yes, you can get on the web better than before. No, you can't do so for long.

Yes, the great African fisherman can check his catch prices using his mobile. Great for him, but please don't translate that into the rest of us ditching our PC's for mobiles.

Russell B said on his site “* If you

@Jones – actually that's not quite true, monopoly is illegal in most regions because laws “…regulating dominance and monopoly prevents firms from using their market power to damage the interests of consumers”. That is potentially applicable here. Monopolies powers are addressedusing competition and antitrust laws.

In short, if Nokia did become the 'global leader in computing within 5 years', it would be one of the most shocking developments in the computing industry since… well, since it began!