Good point, well made.

“Challenge: Explain Synergy and WebOS in 15 seconds, in language a non-geek could understand. If you can come up with that, and make it sound like a must-have that trumps everything else…”

All your contacts, sync'd across all your networks. Facebook, gmail, phone – you name it! Oh and using the web is just like the iPhone..”
(done)

“If you can't catch them in a 10-second appraisal of the spec sheet next to the shop stand dummy, then you'll never get them. “
Not entirely true… and I don't think I need to point out why.

I think you said it all in your original piece with: “It will require a substantial MNO investment in marketing…”

Says. It. All.

At least we know that Apple & Google's mobile domination will be curtailed at 49% of the global population

WebOS may be elegant in one sense, but a thin, web technology based, thin-client running on a Linux kernel isn't exactly well equipped to survive the mobile jungle of the future (engineering perspective). (Extra bit to wind up people) Bit like Android – except its a thin Java client..

Q: walk into your local mall and ask 100 people what OS their phone uses. If more than 3 actually know, I'll buy you lunch. I stand by my point that 90% of the sell is hardware.

S60 as it stands on Nokia is Nokia's interpretation of how S60 should look. They decide what icons and menus go where. Other vendors have done it differently. Just as Linux/Windows depend on the UI on top, so does S60. S60 is not 'long in the tooth' if by that you imply irrelevant/tired. It is very well-established, stable and respected. Do you consider the internal combustion engine 'long in the tooth'? Compare Honda and Lada. Both engines use exactly the same underlying technology, but deliver a very different driving experience based on the manufacturer's interpretation. I'm the first to agree with Ewan that S60 by Nokia has dire usability challenges, but as has been repeated time and again, these are only because of the engineering-led UI.

Q: what made the N95 such a success? S60? no. WiFi? no. GPS? no. It was the 5MP/Carl Zeiss camera, plain and simple. Something consumers could understand in 0.5 of a second, with zero help from the salesperson. Apple lost many non-fanboi iPhone customers because of the rubbish camera. Do they care? No. But it doesn't stop it being true.

If the Pre was 2MP with no flash, it would rule out 50% of sales offhand.

Challenge: Explain Synergy and WebOS in 15 seconds, in language a non-geek could understand. If you can come up with that, and make it sound like a must-have that trumps everything else (particularly the BlackBerry Bold), then you can claim fair rights to use 'Synergy' and 'WebOS' as a justifiable selling point. Otherwise all you will do is upset/confuse customers, and the sales staff (95% of whom, bless their cotton socks, are not employed for their technical acumen) will not even go down the geek OS pissing-contest path. Anyway, salesperson recommendation ranks among the lowest of influencing factors in phone purchasing, while brand is the strongest.

The iPhone sold completely non-tech people without a word, by being stunningly smooth and inviting further exploration by touching icons that were in your face from power-on. I don't see the Pre doing quite the same thing, from the reviews to date. Screen too small, menus too deep. If your argument runs to Palm still having 3-6 months to put more icons in the right places, well, so can other vendors.

The Pre isn't “about the 3MP and flash, dummy” and I never said it was. It's a *combination* of factors – physical design, touch, QWERTY, camera – that will get customers hooked into further exploration of the device, tariff etc. If you can't catch them in a 10-second appraisal of the spec sheet next to the shop stand dummy, then you'll never get them. Camera spec is a hygiene factor these days, along with battery life, keypad ease-of-use for SMS and tariff.

I am impressed with the Pre, make no mistake. I used to write on paper using Palm's Graffiti as shorthand, I knew it so well. I was Handango's biggest customer. I really, really like Palm (WM forgiven). But on balance with what is out there and what is coming, I see Europe being a very hard sell for the Pre.

Footnote: I do claim some visibility of devices / OS tweaks you've probably not seen, under NDA with top handset vendors, so can forgive you for thinking me an old stick-in-the-mud. Unless you have the full picture it's hard to do a good job of analysis / forecast.

It had me at 'inductive charger'

Good point, well made.

“Challenge: Explain Synergy and WebOS in 15 seconds, in language a non-geek could understand. If you can come up with that, and make it sound like a must-have that trumps everything else…”

All your contacts, sync'd across all your networks. Facebook, gmail, phone – you name it! Oh and using the web is just like the iPhone..”
(done)

“If you can't catch them in a 10-second appraisal of the spec sheet next to the shop stand dummy, then you'll never get them. “
Not entirely true… and I don't think I need to point out why.

I think you said it all in your original piece with: “It will require a substantial MNO investment in marketing…”

Says. It. All.

At least we know that Apple & Google's mobile domination will be curtailed at 49% of the global population

WebOS may be elegant in one sense, but a thin, web technology based, thin-client running on a Linux kernel isn't exactly well equipped to survive the mobile jungle of the future (engineering perspective). (Extra bit to wind up people) Bit like Android – except its a thin Java client..

Q: walk into your local mall and ask 100 people what OS their phone uses. If more than 3 actually know, I'll buy you lunch. I stand by my point that 90% of the sell is hardware.

S60 as it stands on Nokia is Nokia's interpretation of how S60 should look. They decide what icons and menus go where. Other vendors have done it differently. Just as Linux/Windows depend on the UI on top, so does S60. S60 is not 'long in the tooth' if by that you imply irrelevant/tired. It is very well-established, stable and respected. Do you consider the internal combustion engine 'long in the tooth'? Compare Honda and Lada. Both engines use exactly the same underlying technology, but deliver a very different driving experience based on the manufacturer's interpretation. I'm the first to agree with Ewan that S60 by Nokia has dire usability challenges, but as has been repeated time and again, these are only because of the engineering-led UI.

Q: what made the N95 such a success? S60? no. WiFi? no. GPS? no. It was the 5MP/Carl Zeiss camera, plain and simple. Something consumers could understand in 0.5 of a second, with zero help from the salesperson. Apple lost many non-fanboi iPhone customers because of the rubbish camera. Do they care? No. But it doesn't stop it being true.

If the Pre was 2MP with no flash, it would rule out 50% of sales offhand.

Challenge: Explain Synergy and WebOS in 15 seconds, in language a non-geek could understand. If you can come up with that, and make it sound like a must-have that trumps everything else (particularly the BlackBerry Bold), then you can claim fair rights to use 'Synergy' and 'WebOS' as a justifiable selling point. Otherwise all you will do is upset/confuse customers, and the sales staff (95% of whom, bless their cotton socks, are not employed for their technical acumen) will not even go down the geek OS pissing-contest path. Anyway, salesperson recommendation ranks among the lowest of influencing factors in phone purchasing, while brand is the strongest.

The iPhone sold completely non-tech people without a word, by being stunningly smooth and inviting further exploration by touching icons that were in your face from power-on. I don't see the Pre doing quite the same thing, from the reviews to date. Screen too small, menus too deep. If your argument runs to Palm still having 3-6 months to put more icons in the right places, well, so can other vendors.

The Pre isn't “about the 3MP and flash, dummy” and I never said it was. It's a *combination* of factors – physical design, touch, QWERTY, camera – that will get customers hooked into further exploration of the device, tariff etc. If you can't catch them in a 10-second appraisal of the spec sheet next to the shop stand dummy, then you'll never get them. Camera spec is a hygiene factor these days, along with battery life, keypad ease-of-use for SMS and tariff.

I am impressed with the Pre, make no mistake. I used to write on paper using Palm's Graffiti as shorthand, I knew it so well. I was Handango's biggest customer. I really, really like Palm (WM forgiven). But on balance with what is out there and what is coming, I see Europe being a very hard sell for the Pre.

Footnote: I do claim some visibility of devices / OS tweaks you've probably not seen, under NDA with top handset vendors, so can forgive you for thinking me an old stick-in-the-mud. Unless you have the full picture it's hard to do a good job of analysis / forecast.

It had me at 'inductive charger'

No wonder so many carriers are about to go under, with guys like you at the helms.

20 seconds after getting hold of my first G1 I handed it to a female colleague and asked her to type an SMS. She has the fingernails of a normal woman – not talons, but also not trim man-nails. She completely failed to connect with the top line keys on the G1's keyboard, handed it back and said “that's one phone no-one in this office will be buying”

Hardware is 90% of the sell. OS is something you learn to live with, or churn to a different vendor after 18 months of pain – best example in the world – 4 letters:RAZR

Had the G1 been able to fit in the back pocket of a pair of tight jeans like the 3G iPhone can, they would have sold twice as many. Virtually no women purchased the G1, almost entirely because of the hardware.

That being said, the fact that Palm doesn't have a savory reputation might play well for it. They can build without preconceptions (sorry), and if those variables play into their favor, have something of a niche to themselves until the rest of folks catch up with those integration pieces.

*I disagree with the hardware focus that Mr. Operator took in this piece; its never about the hardware for devices like this unless the hardware can vanish and expose the goodness of the software – hence the current rush to touchscreen-ful devices.

He's right about the timeframe though – everything that's currently special about the Pre can be rolled into other platforms fairly rapidly, so they will need to quickly garner mainstream press and capture mindshare . Right now there's a lot of blogger buzz, but my Mum doesn't quiz me about it like she does the iPhone…