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	<title>Mobile Industry Review &#187; Google&#8217;s Trojan Horse</title>
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		<title>Latitude: Google&#8217;s Trojan Horse (or, Why Who&#8217;s Nearby Is Not A Business)</title>
		<link>http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2009/02/latitude_the_trojan_horse_--_why_whos_nearby_is_not_a_business.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2009/02/latitude_the_trojan_horse_--_why_whos_nearby_is_not_a_business.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:15:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ewan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Google's Trojan Horse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latitude]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mobile Presence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rummble]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/?p=14597</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Andrew is the affable and uber-smart chap behind location based services company, Rummble. The service is described on the site frontpage thus: The easiest way to find people and places nearby that you will like. A Rummble can be any place &#8211; restaurant, shop, photo opportunity, a favourite walk. And you must definitely download the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Andrew is the affable and uber-smart chap behind location based services company, <a href="http://www.rummble.com">Rummble</a>.  The service is described on the site frontpage thus:</p>
<blockquote><p>The easiest way to find people and places nearby that you will like. A Rummble can be any place &#8211; restaurant, shop, photo opportunity, a favourite walk.</p></blockquote>
<p>And you must definitely download the Rummble iPhone application.  Find it in the App Store.</p>
<p>What, then, does Andrew think about Google&#8217;s latest Latitude addition to Google Maps?  Well I strongly encourage you to get a cup of coffee, sit back and read this piece below.  If you&#8217;re running a service with the words &#8216;mobile&#8217;, &#8216;social&#8217; and &#8216;network&#8217; in it, I think Andrew&#8217;s perspective will be hugely relevant.</p>
<p>Over to Andrew:</p>
<p>- &#8211; - &#8211; -</p>
<p>For the last 3 years now I&#8217;ve been crowing at conferences that &#8220;Who&#8217;s nearby&#8221; is not a business. I drew this conclusion from running <a href="http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/news/2005/03/66813">playtxt</a>, Europe&#8217;s first location-based mobile social network.</p>
<p>It started in 2002 and we had an Alpha launch in 2003. It was ridiculously early to market. Back in 2002 most normal people (i.e. those for whom a &#8220;tweet&#8221; today is still something only birds do) did not know what a social network was, let alone a mobile location-based social network. Thanks to <a href="http://www.myspace.com">MySpace</a>, <a href="http://www.facebook.com">Facebook</a> and the inevitable march of technology, even my own mother is now aware of social networking, SMS and GPS.</p>
<p>By 2005 Google had bought our main competitor <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodgeball">Dodgeball</a> and although the mobile operators were still charging for Cell ID lookups (ludicrously, they are STILL trying to!) I already believed it was only a matter of time before location became a commodity. It would too easy to do for start-ups to do and even easier for others such as Facebook, which was on its ascent.</p>
<p>I decided that &#8220;who&#8217;s nearby?&#8221; was never going to create a multi-million pound business and I made three predictions, some which are still relevant today:</p>
<p>* GPS will be in every phone as cameras were then becoming. (GPS chipsets are extremely cheap, power consumption is becoming lower, processing power higher and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_positioning_system">Galileo</a> is on the horizon -literally, haha).<br />
* One of the gorillas (<a href="http://www.google.com">Google</a>, <a href="http://www.yahoo.com">Yahoo</a> et al) will release a free Cell ID/Location API. (Google have and <a href="http://urbanhorizon.wordpress.com/2008/06/01/geolocation-finds-its-place-in-the-ecosystem/">its excellent</a>).<br />
* &#8220;Who&#8217;s nearby&#8221; will also become a commodity</p>
<p>For the last 2 years I&#8217;ve been telling any start-up which is building its own Cell ID database, that it must be mad. I see no business model. Google about as likely to charge for Cell ID lookup as it is for its maps API; and that likelihood is slim.</p>
<p>There was (and is) money to be made with tracking and Cell ID technology, but both industries begin with &#8220;S&#8221; and neither spell the world &#8220;Social&#8221;. Instead, it is Security (child tracking, staff tracking) and of course Sex (proximity dating, adult services); infact any vertical where a premium can be demanded &#8211; we know that fear and shagging both command strong emotions which can result in a buying decision. Wondering &#8220;Where are my friends?&#8221; does not; unless of course you&#8217;re intensely paranoid or have VERY accommodating friends.</p>
<p>There is no mobile internet: there is only the internet.</p>
<p>This has been my other crusade for the last 2 years; and this is probably what Google believes too. What I mean is, that fix-line world-wide-web access is the black &amp; white TV of the internet. Amazing in itself, but without the full functionality of what we recognise as &#8220;television&#8221; today.</p>
<p>Location, portability and the need for personalisation (a mobile being such a small, personal device) are the three missing dwarfs which give us our Seven Dwarfs of the modern internet. (The first four were IMHO: the web browser as user interface, freedom to publish without government or minority corporate control, always-on fixed cost access, and broadband bandwidth; Snow White being the internet itself).</p>
<p>So in the near future (3-5years?) no one will talk of the &#8220;mobile&#8221; internet but simply, the internet. You will have an iphonesque device (in size &amp; looks if not in O/S <img src='http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' />  which you take home and plug into your 24&#8243; screen and keyboard &#8230;we&#8217;ve still a decade to go before we type goodbye to Mr Qwerty and say hello to HAL.</p>
<p>Be under no delusion, Latitude is Googles Trojan horse into the social networking space.</p>
<p>After Googles purchase of Dodgeball it was clear they had every intention to roll out a service such as Latitude and they are perfectly positioned to do so.</p>
<p>Almost by-passing online social networking entirely (aside from <a href="http://www.orkut.com/">Orkut</a> which only took hold in Brazil) I believe Google will pursue a wide-reaching mobile social play. Google will build up a critical mass of users on Latitude; and they will join because:</p>
<p>* It is Google (so its trustworthy; yes still)<br />
* It&#8217;s easy to use &#8211; simple UI and simple privacy model: Automatic, Manual or Hide your location (or as I prefer: Honest, Lie or Paranoia)<br />
* It has reach (27 countries at launch, lots of handsets, no GPS required)<br />
* It&#8217;s free</p>
<p>They will then likely launch an API (in the process solving some of the standardisation and interconnectivity problems &#8211; possibly using the new OAuth hybrid or equivalent) but also roll out other functionality enhancements. Although the latter may take longer than you think.</p>
<p>Latitude has lots wrong with it too e.g. <a href="http://www.gmail.com/">Gmail</a> import only (where is <a href="http://code.google.com/apis/socialgraph/">XFN Social Graph</a> import or device address book comparison?) status update is crying out for Twitter integration and a hook into <a href="http://fireeagle.yahoo.com/">FireEagle</a> (with which <a href="http://www.google.com/latitude">Latitude</a> does not compete, yet) would all be very welcome (the last two are unlikely for political reasons but would be a fantastic nod to the open ecosystem) and don&#8217;t forget part of Latitude&#8217;s beauty is its simplicity; and Google have time on their side.</p>
<p>Many of us have been waiting for location-based services to come of age for YEARS! but in reality we&#8217;re still in the early adopter curve. In fact, I&#8217;d go even further than that. At <a href="http://www.mashupevent.com/being-digital/event-1">BeingDigital</a> in 2008 I stated on stage to a deluge of ridicule, that Social Networking wasn&#8217;t yet main stream. The laughing continued until I asked how many parents AND siblings of delegates had email? The answer was predictable: virtually everyone. Then I asked how many parents and siblings were also on a social network; over 75% of the hands dropped.</p>
<p>150 million people on Facebook is a lot, but 3.2 billion people have mobile phones: that&#8217;s a lot more. Email is mainstream, social networking is still maturing. Eventually it will of course become part of everything we do &#8220;online&#8221; rather than be a destination, with your social graph becoming portable and also actually owned by you, not FaceSpace.</p>
<p>So what does this all mean?</p>
<p>1) Location is already commodity AND your friends location will become a commodity. Any service will be able to plug in and use this data (with the right permissions). Its already happening &#8211; checkout Yahoo&#8217;s FireEagle which is an aggregator of location between services.</p>
<p>2) If you&#8217;re a start-up building LBS, Cell ID, friends nearby services, or anything else which is being commoditised as we speak, see above.  <a href="http://www.loopt.com/">Loopt</a>; west coast startup run by a bright 24 year old entreprenuer &#8211; nice guy, flawed business plan. $13million+ in funding, nudging just 1 million users after 3 years with low engagement metrics. Differentiator? There isn&#8217;t one. Case closed, game over.</p>
<p>3) If you&#8217;re running anything with the words &#8220;mobile social network&#8221; in the title, lock yourself in a room with your team and work out how you&#8217;re going to save your business. That means innovate. Mobile is not a differentiator, its an inevitability.</p>
<p>At <a href="http://www.leweb3.com/leweb3/2008/05/leweb08-registr.html">Le Web 07</a> I met with <a href="http://www.twitter.com/Skout">Christian</a>, Founder of <a href="http://www.eu.skout.com/">Skout</a>. He had built a cool location based mobile social network (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MoSoSo">LoMoSoSo</a> anyone?). By Q1 2008 when I met him in San Francisco, he&#8217;d already realised that competition was fierce and the concept was flawed &#8212; and that was before the gorillas had waded in. I implored him to change strategy (something which in fact he&#8217;d already started doing). He chose dating. It&#8217;s a smart move. Dating generates money-and lots of it. Proximity dating, or in fact &#8220;mobile dating&#8221; in general has never been done really well (even <a href="http://www.techcrunch.com/">Mr Arrington</a> agrees).</p>
<p>As a LBS start-up, you need to think about adding distinctive value for users; differentiating on location is an oxymoron. I know some of you are making money, some of the pure play mobile social networks are even profitable &#8211; great. But there&#8217;s an iceberg ahead and it may be bigger than it looks: just ask <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Smith">Captain Edward John Smith</a>.</p>
<p>The future is relevance; the context of not only where I am but what I&#8217;m doing, who I am, where I will be. In summary: It&#8217;s about the data, stupid.</p>
<p>And that will be what I write about in my next post.</p>
<p>- &#8211; - &#8211; -</p>
<p>And I for one, Andrew, am very much looking forward to your next post.  Thank you for taking the time.</p>
<p>Get Andrew on Twitter: <a href="http://twitter.com/andrewjscott">@andrewjscott</a>.</p>
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