Anyway. Set this aside.

Your eyes do not deceive you.

TechCrunch is saying nice thinks about Nokia.

Ok.

Well, they’re not precisely doing that. They’re reporting news that will have the iOS fanbois spitting out their cornflakes tomorrow morning: Windows Phone will overtake iOS by 2015?

You what?

That’s apparently what IDC and Gartner reckon:

Based on its history, you probably wouldn’t expect to see Windows Phone take off like a rocket. But apparently that’s what it’s going to do. Research out of Gartner and IDC says that Mango may grab a whopping 20 percent of the market by 2015, with the help of hardware partners like HTC and a little extra effort in the marketing department.

via Gartner, IDC: Windows Phone To Steal Second Place From iOS By 2015 | TechCrunch.

This is what I’ve been banging on about in the context of Apple. I’ve been consistently pointing out that Apple is going to have to go on the offensive soon.

For some reason, most of the folk I speak to seem to think that for Apple, the next decade is steady-as-she-goes, that it’s all pre-written. iPhone 5 this year, iPhone 6 next year, iPhone 7 the year after — and at this point, the whole planet will be using iPhones.

This is the received wisdom. Oh, yeah, maybe there will be some Android users too — and one or two small platforms still limping along.

This post is a neat little wake up call to those who have been drinking a little too much koolaid — for whatever reason.

Apple has already been taking a battering (as we say in Scotland) from those deeply, deeply unimpressed at the fact the company is being nailed by Android.

Of course there’s a pricing issue. Apple can’t touch the wider markets with it’s products. The wider markets simply can’t afford them. There’s nothing you can do to fit a $500 value handset into the hands of someone who can ONLY afford $55.

A $55 Android handset, on the other hand? Definitely. A $55 Windows Phone? Well, that’s perhaps a bit of a stretch but eminently possible within a few product cycles.

I’m looking forward to seeing Apple’s response in this area. Will the company simply stick to doing what it’s comfortable with (i.e. highly profitable niche player?) or will they reach way beyond this?

With $80 billion in cash right now — and goodness knows how much by the end of the next 2 quarters — those investors are going to continue to get mighty demanding. The profits are going to have to keep coming. And if Windows Phone starts to make a dent — alongside Android — I’m excited to see what defensive and offensive strategies Apple will adopt.

You won’t be surprised by the Symbian statistics, will you? IDC has their marketshare for 2011 at a still respectable 20.6%. By 2015, it reckons the Symbian share of smartphones will account for 0.1%.

Ouch.

Still, that’s not much of a surprise.

For ‘Symbian’, read ‘Windows Phone 7′ though. At least that’s one way to look at it. IDC forecasts that Windows Phone 7 (and Windows Mobile) will account for 20.3% of smartphones in 2015, presumably the bulk being shipped by Nokia?

BlackBerry’s forecast is hanging on at 13.4% whilst Android’s forecast is way, way up the charts at a whopping 43.8%. The iOS forecast is sitting at a rather stagnant 16.9%. Highly believable, provided Apple don’t take the red pill and start shipping hundreds of millions of iPhone Nano devices in the next few years.

Right then, jump into the full release below. I pasted the stats in as a graphic right at the bottom.

Let me know if you agree with their forecasts.

- – - – -

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. June 9, 2011 – The worldwide smartphone market is forecast to grow 55% year over year in 2011 as a growing number of users turn in their feature phones for more advanced devices. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors will ship a total of 472 million smartphones in 2011 compared to roughly 305 million units shipped in 2010. That figure will nearly double to 982 million by the end of 2015.

The fast-growing smartphone market, which will grow more than four times the rate of the overall mobile phone market this year, is being fuelled by falling average selling prices, increased phone functionality, and lower-cost data plans among other factors, which make the devices more accessible to a wider range of users.

“The smartphone floodgates are open wide,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their ‘talk-and-text’ devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years.”

Smartphone Operating Systems

“Underpinning smartphone growth is the rapidly shifting operating system landscape,” added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. “End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems. Taking this as their cue, operating system developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”

IDC expects Android, which passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in Q4 2010, to grow to more than 40% of the market in the second half of 2011. A significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies is propelling the growth of Android.

Symbian will steadily lose share throughout the forecast period as its biggest supporter Nokia transitions its smartphone strategy to Windows Phone. This will present a huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing. Still, Nokia’s commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base of Symbian-powered smartphone users on par with its competitors.

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia’s support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence. Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.

iOS was the third ranked OS going into 2011 and will remain a force in the mobile phone market throughout the forecast. After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures

and diversifies. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth through the end of 2015.

BlackBerry OS is expected to maintain its position as a Top 4 smartphone operating system over the forecast period. Like iOS, the BlackBerry OS will experience market share decline even as shipment volumes grow throughout our forecast.

The iPhone’s market share now stands at just over 19 percent of all smartphones, down from around 26 percent in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, RIM’s BlackBerry saw its market share jump in comparison, going from 35.1 percent of all smartphones in the fourth quarter of last year to 44.5 percent in the first quarter of this year and Palm saw its share grow from 7.9 percent to 13.4 percent of smart device sales.

Why has Apple hit a bump? Suggestions have included a post-Christmas shopping slump, new models from both Palm and RIM hitting the market and shoppers waiting for the 3G iPhone to surface. Chances are it’s a bit more prosaic than that: Apple’s range at the moment is just a single device and most people who wanted one went out to buy it in the first few months after release. Wait for the June refresh, and chances are those numbers will pick up again.