Fred Grott found this one and tweeted it up this evening. It’s a fascinating perspective on how a large, integrated platform based product cycle responds to external forces.
When the iPhone was announced (January 2007), an analyst friend of mine calculated the competitive response from Nokia, based on his understanding on how companies of this size in this industry in general are able to change.
For the purposes of this article, we tried to revisit the prediction to update it with anecdotal evidence. So far there has been seemingly little activity that has affected the trajectory.
The author, Tapio Anttila, then takes us through the predictions of his analyst friend from 2007 to 2014.
2007 reads like this:
2007: There would be no response within the first year, meaning there would be no perceived threat of any kind. Zero process change, zero roadmap changes and no business review. Apple is not considered a competitor.
By 2010, the analyst reckons Nokia will get the message.
2010: Realization that iPhone is a threat from new dimensions (user experience).
And by 2014? It’s not looking good…
2014: First products that are roughly comparable with iPhone version 1 begin shipping. The required software redesign started in 2010 is coupled with the integration efforts. Nokia’s response to the iPhone has begun.
Go and read the whole thing here:
I like one of his final points:
The N97 shipping in 2009 is the result of work begun in 2007, it has had no influence at all from the iPhone.
I think that much is entirely plain to see. 😉
For those who simply can’t fathom why Nokia would foist the likes of the Nokia N97 on an iPhone-obsessed marketplace with a straight face — and not understand the dismay of many, Tapio’s piece should be enlightening.
Whether Nokia can actually react quicker than what his analyst friend has predicted, well, that remains to be seen. Whether the likes of Stefan agrees (“Kill Ovi, spin off the hardware unit, become a bank“), I wonder.
What’s your viewpoint of Nokia at the moment? It is simply far too complicated for the company to change dramatically?
(You can follow Tapio on Twitter here.)