2026 Mobile Industry Predictions: Insights from Sam Jackman of Shared Access

We spoke with Sam Jackman, Chief Development Officer at Shared Access, a leading provider of shared wireless infrastructure across the UK and Europe. With the VodafoneThree merger finally approved and significant changes reshaping the competitive landscape, Sam shares his perspective on the consolidation wave, technological shifts, and strategic priorities that will define the mobile industry in 2026.

Over to you Sam - my questions are in bold:

What's the biggest shift you expect across the mobile industry in 2026?

The biggest shift that will impact the mobile industry in 2026 will be around consolidation. In the UK, Vodafone and Three have finally been granted permission to merge to form VodafoneThree while in Spain, Orange will look to consolidate and take full control of MasOrange. This is also seen in the US, with the breakup of US Cellular's assets. In many other markets across Europe this trend is already started and will continue.

Consolidation will ultimately lead to more investment in each of the markets mentioned, however in the short term it can lead to a slowdown in investment. Consolidation is necessary in the mobile industry due to the low price of data charged to consumers (and the impact this has on profitability) and to justify the huge spends necessary for the rollout of standalone 5G networks.

In the UK there has been uncertainty and lack of investment while Vodafone and Three awaited the decision about their merger. Now the permission has been granted, the newly formed network has very quickly identified and selected new RAN partners focused on growth mandates linked to the rollout of spectrum and started to identify areas for investment. This will lead to other MNOs like EE and VMO2 having to invest in their networks so as not to lose their respective positions (in front for EE, already behind for VMO2).

Consolidation is also necessary in most markets as MVNOs start eating into market share of the incumbent mobile network operators. This threat will only increase over time as MVNOs combine multiple business opportunities for consumers to benefit from. As such, incumbent MNOs need to face this threat head on by ensuring their businesses are robust and can maximise investment.

Which emerging technology will have the most practical impact on operators, MVNOs, and the companies that support them?

Even though it's a buzzword at the moment, AI is likely to have a huge impact on mobile network operators. This is largely because historically mobile network operators have been built over many years, often through multiple acquisitions and, as such, behind the scenes in the back office it's not always as joined up and functional as it would appear from the outside.

By embracing AI and agents that can run automated processes inside not just the mobile network operators networks but also the back end systems (such as billing and customer engagement), huge cost savings and efficiency savings will be (and already are) identified to improve the customer experience as well as the quality and efficiency of networks.

This is critical for MNOs as recently MVNOs have really competed with MNOs with regard to customer service. This is because MVNOs do not have to build the networks that they benefit from the use of and, as such, can funnel resources into the customer facing part of their business. Through the embrace of AI, MNOs will be able to more readily compete and allocate resources to head off this threat to their market share - and hence improve their profitability.

What customer behaviours or expectations will most challenge mobile operators and service providers?

There are two major customer behaviours or expectations that will challenge mobile operators in 2026.

The first is the expectation that 5G will finally deliver speeds and be available on a geographic basis in all the areas either promised by MNOs or where it is demanded. This will force MNOs to continue to invest in network upgrades, 5G standalone core upgrades and the deployment of improved connectivity in more places both outdoor and, increasingly, indoor. This will require large amounts of capital to be invested as well as putting pressure on the organisations themselves operationally.

The second threat will continue to be the rise of MVNOs. More and more businesses are starting to combine service offerings and compete in this crowded marketplace, which has the impact of reducing market share and reducing revenues at the MNOs. Mobile network operators need to improve their reputation in the market through the embrace of new technologies such as AI to ensure they can compete with these new threats and also continue to operate and offer great network coverage to their customers.

What risks or blind spots do you think the industry is underestimating as we move into 2026?

One of the telecoms industry's challenges in 2026 will be rebuilding the labour capacity needed for standalone 5G rollouts after a prolonged pause caused by uncertainty around the VodafoneThree merger, resolved only at the end of 2025.

Businesses do not operate in a vacuum and while it was unclear whether or not the regulator would allow the merger, overheads at many contractors could not be sustained and changes were made. This, combined with the inevitable delays that follow such a merger in terms of vendor partner decision making, consolidation of infrastructure and decisions about personnel, has meant that the rest of the industry will take time to regroup and re energise.

This will inevitably mean new investment does not take place as quickly as we would like and could lead to frustrations at a customer level.

Linked to this, another potential issue for the industry will be changes in government policy with regards to staff cost increases. Any plans made before the increase in National Insurance will need to be reviewed and re costed which, again, could delay investment and mean the investment is not as beneficial as it would have been previously.

If you were advising a mobile operator's leadership team today, what strategic priority should they focus on to stay competitive in 2026 and beyond?

The most important strategic priority for the leadership of mobile network operators is to convince and explained to the public the value of mobile networks. At a fundamental level people are willing to pay for things they consider important and not willing to pay for things they take for granted. Historically mobile network operators have had to engage in price wars to gain market share, thus reducing profitability. However, the rollout of standalone 5G networks and 4G infill in city centres and rural areas create huge cash demands on mobile network operators.

In my opinion, the only way to deliver the quality of networks consumers expect is to persuade the public to accept higher charges for data. That would require a fundamental shift in how networks are viewed: from a cheap, endlessly criticised service to essential national infrastructure that is reliable, high-quality and properly valued.

Thank you Sam!

You can connect with Sam on his LinkedIn Profile and find out more about the company at www.sharedaccess.com.