A new research study from Disruptive Analysis (from the blogosphere’s very own Dean Bubley) shows that evolution of mobile VoIP will rapidly eclipse voice over WiFi and become a mainstream form of communication.
The analyst firm predicts that the number of VoIPo3G users could grow from virtually zero in 2007 to over 250m by the end of 2012. This is comfortably in excess of the expected number of FMC users with dual-mode VoWLAN/cellular phones.
The key point, of course, is the word could. I can see that. I can also see it going quite a few other ways depending on how things pan out with the stratospheric shifts going on in the marketplace today. 2012 used to sound like a long time away when we were in the year 1999, but it’s only — what… 5 years away now?
The report demonstrates that it will be the operators themselves which will be mainly responsible for the push towards VoIP being carried over cellular networks. Carriers will become increasingly attracted to VoIPo3G because it will enable them to fit more phone calls into their scarce spectrum allocations, reduce operating expenses by combining fixed and mobile core networks, and launch new services like push-to-talk and voice-integrated “mashups”.
VoIPo3G also fits well with the move towards femtocells. Future generations of wireless technology – 3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution), 3GPP2 UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband), WiMAX – are “all-IP”, so unless mobile operators continue to run separate voice networks in parallel, they will inevitably transition to VoIP at some point.
What do you reckon?
\You can read more — and get more information on Disruptive Analysis at www.disruptive-analysis.com/.
Hi Ewan
Thanks for the post on this.
The main variable here is the carriers’ rollout schedules for LTE and UMB, and to a lesser extent HSPA+. The all-IP networks won’t support circuit telephony, so VoIP is mandatory (but perhaps ‘under the hood’)- although I expect most users to fall back to GSM/UMTS/1x/EVDO circuit voice when out of coverage.
But if those “3.9G” rollouts get significantly delayed, then the really big numbers for VoIPo3G move to the right in tandem with them – I don’t think the independent VoIP services will fill the gap entirely.
Cheers
Dean